Updated January 30, 2013 16:11:02

Julia Gillard's early election announcement follows the trend towards certainty seen across Westminster governments and robs political pundits of their chance to speculate, writes Antony Green.

In announcing the date of the 2013 federal election as September 14, Prime Minister Julia Gillard has given the longest notice of an election, certainly since 1943, but probably since federation.

Robert Menzies gave three months notice of the 1958 and 1961 elections, but giving eight months must be a new record.

It is certainly longer than the one day's notice Malcolm Fraser gave in 1983. There will be no excuses for voters failing to update their enrolment at this year's election.

Of course, there is still an outside possibility the election could be earlier. The government could lose an important vote in the House and be forced to resign. There could be a change of Labor leadership, and any new leader may choose to adopt a different election date. But the prospects of a change from the September 14 timeline looks unlikely.

It is certainly no longer in the Coalition's interest to call for an early election. An election before August 3 would be for the House of Representatives and four Territory senators only. If the Coalition won an early election, it would be stuck with a hostile Senate that needed an election in early 2014, an unattractive prospect for any government one year into its term.

In giving so much notice of the election date, the Prime Minister follows a growing trend in democracies that base their parliamentary system on the UK Parliament in Westminster.

In Australia, four states and the two territories already have fixed election dates. Only Queensland, Tasmania and the Federal Parliament still have variable terms where the head of government determines the date.

Many Canadian provinces have adopted fixed terms, as has the current UK government, with prime minister David Cameron having already announced the date of the 2015 election.

In 2011, New Zealand prime minister John Key gave nine months' notice of his country's election to avoid speculation on the election clashing with the Rugby World Cup.

In taking this step, Julia Gillard has departed from the tradition that has developed in Australia since 1990 of prime ministers announcing an election on the weekend before the resumption of parliamentary sitting with a minimum notice of weeks. (Or the six-week campaign the sitting schedule forced John Howard to adopt in 2004 and 2007.)

Before 1990, it was normal for the prime minister to announce the date of the election to Parliament after a visit to the Governor-General, and for Parliament to sit after the election date was announced. Formal campaigning would not begin until the writ was issued two or three weeks later.

Only the 1983 snap double dissolution departed from this tradition. When Bob Hawke reverted to the parliamentary announcement of an election date for 1984 and 1987, he was criticised for creating an overlong campaign. In 1990, he began the new tradition of announcing an election on a weekend with a minimum campaign.

Now Julia Gillard has gone to the opposite extreme. Instead of trying to catch the opposition out short of detail with a snap poll, the Prime Minister has set out a road map to polling day, giving the Opposition plenty of time to announce policy.

The losers from this are political pundits robbed of endless speculation on when the election will be held.

The winners, the poor cameramen and journalists who will not have to spend fruitless weekends sitting outside the governor-general's residence on the off-chance that the Prime Minister will drive up.

This article was first published on Antony Green's Election Blog.

Antony Green is the ABC's election analyst. View his full profile here.

Topics: federal-elections, gillard-julia, government-and-politics

First posted January 30, 2013 15:38:32

Comments (72)

14 September snap: alias TURE SJOLANDER